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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."